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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-73 (63.5%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 11-8 (57.9%) · A 222-104 (68.1%) · B 2540-1347 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
311-634 33%
2+ TB Record
389-556 41%
Graded
945 picks L5
← PREV 2026-04-28 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Christian Walker
CW
HOU HOU vs BAL BAL vs Shane Baz 6:35 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .325 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Shane Baz has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.07x.
✓ XBH 3 TB
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs KC KC vs Kris Bubic 9:40 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Kris Bubic has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.
✓ XBH 4 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs BAL BAL vs Shane Baz 6:35 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Shane Baz has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.07x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs KC KC vs Kris Bubic 9:40 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Kris Bubic has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Brice Turang
Brice Turang
2026-09-20 — MIL MIL vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-20 — SEA SEA vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers
2026-09-20 — MIA MIA vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-20 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-20 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-20 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
331-1432 (19%)
ELITE
57-256 (18%)
Riley Greene
RG
DET DET vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez temp
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Shohei Ohtani
SO
LAD LAD vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk platoon
HR prob
27%
Jahmai Jones
JJ
DET DET vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Max Muncy
MM
Max Muncy BOMB
LAD LAD vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Davis Schneider
DS
TOR TOR vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
21%
✓ HOME RUN!
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Jo Adell
JA
Jo Adell ELITE
LAA LAA vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kerry Carpenter
KC
DET DET vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Mike Trout
MT
Mike Trout ELITE
LAA LAA vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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