LOCK LABS — Power Plays

BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 165-75 (68.8%) · B 1714-906 (65.4%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record

213-400 35%

2+ TB Record

268-345 44%

Graded

613 picks W1

← PREV 2026-06-03 NEXT →

Last scored 04:00 PM ET

Matt Olson LOCK

ATL vs TOR

TOR vs Patrick Corbin 7:15 PM ET temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Patrick Corbin's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 75°F game-time temp.

✓ 2+ TB 3 TB

Juan Soto LOCK

NYM vs SEA

SEA vs George Kirby 3:40 PM ET platoon confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Soto's .262 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. George Kirby has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.

✗ No XBH 1 TB

Wilyer Abreu LOCK

BOS vs BAL

BAL vs Chris Bassitt 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Chris Bassitt has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 79°F game-time temp.

✓ HR 5 TB

Nick Kurtz LOCK

ATH vs CHC

CHC vs Colin Rea 8:05 PM ET platoon confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Colin Rea has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.

✗ No XBH 1 TB

Recent Results (last 20 graded)

✗

Yordan Alvarez

2026-07-24 — HOU

HOU vs

CWS

No XBH

1 TB

✗

CJ Abrams

2026-07-24 — WSH

WSH vs

No XBH

2 TB

✗

Corbin Carroll

2026-07-24 —

AZ vs

WSH

No XBH

1 TB

✗

Juan Soto

2026-07-24 — NYM

NYM vs

LAD

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Luis García Jr.

2026-07-24 — WSH

WSH vs

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Andy Pages

2026-07-24 — LAD

LAD vs

NYM

3 TB

✓

Freddie Freeman

2026-07-24 — LAD

LAD vs

NYM

4 TB

✗

Jose Altuve

2026-07-24 — HOU

HOU vs

CWS

No XBH

3 TB

✓

Kyle Schwarber

2026-07-24 — PHI

PHI vs

NYY

2 TB

✓

Munetaka Murakami

2026-07-24 — CWS

CWS vs

HOU

2 TB

✓

Jared Young

2026-07-24 — NYM

NYM vs

LAD

3 TB

✓

Christian Walker

2026-07-24 — HOU

HOU vs

CWS

2 TB

✗

Chase DeLauter

2026-07-23 — CLE

CLE vs

MIN

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Drake Baldwin

2026-07-23 — ATL

ATL vs

4 TB

✗

Matt Olson

2026-07-23 — ATL

ATL vs

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Corbin Carroll

2026-07-23 —

AZ vs

STL

3 TB

✗

Chase DeLauter

2026-07-22 — CLE

CLE vs

MIN

No XBH

1 TB

✗

Andy Pages

2026-07-22 — LAD

LAD vs

PHI

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Zach Neto

2026-07-22 — LAA

LAA vs

STL

2 TB

✓

Jackson Merrill

2026-07-22 —

SD vs

ATL

5 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB

247-994 (20%)

ELITE

40-192 (17%)

Byron Buxton BOMB

MIN vs CWS

CWS vs Erick Fedde temp pitcher_form

HR prob

31%

✗ No HR

Kyle Schwarber BOMB

PHI vs

SD vs Walker Buehler temp platoon

HR prob

30%

✓ HOME RUN!

Shohei Ohtani BOMB

LAD vs

AZ vs Zac Gallen pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Nick Kurtz BOMB

ATH vs CHC

CHC vs Colin Rea pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Taylor Ward BOMB

BAL vs BOS

BOS vs Payton Tolle temp platoon

HR prob

27%

✗ No HR

Pete Alonso BOMB

BAL vs BOS

BOS vs Payton Tolle temp platoon

HR prob

27%

✗ No HR

Ronald Acuña Jr. BOMB

ATL vs TOR

TOR vs Patrick Corbin temp platoon

HR prob

27%

✗ No HR

Max Muncy BOMB

LAD vs

AZ vs Zac Gallen pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✗ No HR

Brandon Lowe BOMB

PIT vs HOU

HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti platoon

HR prob

24%

✗ No HR

Bryce Harper BOMB

PHI vs

SD vs Walker Buehler temp platoon

HR prob

24%

✗ No HR

Tyler O'Neill BOMB

BAL vs BOS

BOS vs Payton Tolle temp platoon

HR prob

24%

✗ No HR

James Wood BOMB

WSH vs MIA

MIA vs Max Meyer temp platoon

HR prob

24%

✗ No HR

Michael Busch ELITE

CHC vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs

HR prob

24%

✗ No HR

Pete Crow-Armstrong ELITE

CHC vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs

HR prob

21%

✓ HOME RUN!

How picks are filtered

2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.

HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.

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