LOCK LABS — Power Plays

BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record

211-398 35%

2+ TB Record

265-344 44%

Graded

609 picks L1

← PREV 2026-07-05 NEXT →

Last scored 04:00 PM ET

Freddie Freeman LOCK

LAD vs

SD vs JP Sears 7:20 PM ET temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Freeman brings legit pop — .237 ISO and 110 mph max exit velocity this season. JP Sears's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 77°F game-time temp.

✗ No XBH 0 TB

Matt Olson LOCK

ATL vs NYM

NYM vs Nolan McLean 12:30 PM ET platoon temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Nolan McLean has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 89°F game-time temp.

✓ XBH 2 TB

Andy Pages LOCK

LAD vs

SD vs JP Sears 7:20 PM ET platoon temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. JP Sears's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.

✗ No XBH 0 TB

Carter Jensen LOCK

KC vs

PHI vs Aaron Nola 3:00 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Aaron Nola has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 14% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.05x, and 87°F game-time temp.

✗ No XBH 1 TB

Sal Stewart LOCK

CIN vs BAL

BAL vs Kyle Bradish 1:05 PM ET temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Bradish's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.

✓ XBH 2 TB

Recent Results (last 20 graded)

✗

CJ Abrams

2026-07-24 — WSH

WSH vs

No XBH

2 TB

✗

Corbin Carroll

2026-07-24 —

AZ vs

WSH

No XBH

1 TB

✗

Juan Soto

2026-07-24 — NYM

NYM vs

LAD

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Luis García Jr.

2026-07-24 — WSH

WSH vs

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Andy Pages

2026-07-24 — LAD

LAD vs

NYM

3 TB

✓

Freddie Freeman

2026-07-24 — LAD

LAD vs

NYM

4 TB

✓

Kyle Schwarber

2026-07-24 — PHI

PHI vs

NYY

2 TB

✓

Jared Young

2026-07-24 — NYM

NYM vs

LAD

3 TB

✗

Chase DeLauter

2026-07-23 — CLE

CLE vs

MIN

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Drake Baldwin

2026-07-23 — ATL

ATL vs

4 TB

✗

Matt Olson

2026-07-23 — ATL

ATL vs

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Corbin Carroll

2026-07-23 —

AZ vs

STL

3 TB

✗

Chase DeLauter

2026-07-22 — CLE

CLE vs

MIN

No XBH

1 TB

✗

Andy Pages

2026-07-22 — LAD

LAD vs

PHI

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Zach Neto

2026-07-22 — LAA

LAA vs

STL

2 TB

✓

Jackson Merrill

2026-07-22 —

SD vs

ATL

5 TB

✗

Drake Baldwin

2026-07-21 — ATL

ATL vs

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Matt Olson

2026-07-21 — ATL

ATL vs

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Carter Jensen

2026-07-21 —

KC vs

4 TB

✗

Cole Young

2026-07-21 — SEA

SEA vs

CIN

No XBH

0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB

246-989 (20%)

ELITE

40-192 (17%)

Rafael Devers BOMB

SF vs

COL vs Tanner Gordon temp pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

32%

✓ HOME RUN! 2 HR

Shohei Ohtani BOMB

LAD vs

SD vs JP Sears temp pitcher_form

HR prob

31%

✗ No HR

Juan Soto BOMB

NYM vs ATL

ATL vs Martín Pérez temp pitcher_form

HR prob

31%

✗ No HR

Daulton Varsho BOMB

TOR vs SEA

SEA vs Emerson Hancock pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Kerry Carpenter BOMB

DET vs TEX

TEX vs Kumar Rocker pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Riley Greene BOMB

DET vs TEX

TEX vs Kumar Rocker pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✓ HOME RUN!

Willy Adames BOMB

SF vs

COL vs Tanner Gordon temp pitcher_form

HR prob

28%

✗ No HR

Gary Sánchez BOMB

MIL vs

AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez platoon

HR prob

21%

✗ No HR

Christian Yelich ELITE

MIL vs

AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez

HR prob

21%

✗ No HR

How picks are filtered

2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.

HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.

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