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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2476-1324 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
306-618 33%
2+ TB Record
383-541 41%
Graded
924 picks W1
← PREV 2026-07-05 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Freddie Freeman
FF
LAD LAD vs SD SD vs JP Sears 7:20 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Freeman brings legit pop — .237 ISO and 110 mph max exit velocity this season. JP Sears's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 77°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs NYM NYM vs Nolan McLean 12:30 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Nolan McLean has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 89°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages LOCK
LAD LAD vs SD SD vs JP Sears 7:20 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. JP Sears's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs PHI PHI vs Aaron Nola 3:00 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Aaron Nola has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 14% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.05x, and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs BAL BAL vs Kyle Bradish 1:05 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Bradish's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
326-1408 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs COL COL vs Tanner Gordon temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✓ HOME RUN! 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani
SO
LAD LAD vs SD SD vs JP Sears temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs SEA SEA vs Emerson Hancock pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Kerry Carpenter
KC
DET DET vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Riley Greene
RG
DET DET vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Willy Adames
WA
SF SF vs COL COL vs Tanner Gordon temp pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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