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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2476-1324 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
306-618 33%
2+ TB Record
383-541 41%
Graded
924 picks W1
← PREV 2026-07-19 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez 2:10 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 111 mph max exit velocity, Perez has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Germán Márquez's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.05x and 90°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto LOCK
NYM NYM vs PHI PHI vs Alan Rangel 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Soto's .262 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Alan Rangel has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 18% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 80°F game-time temp.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs BAL BAL vs Brandon Young 2:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Brandon Young has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ XBH 2 TB
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs ATH vs Jacob Lopez 4:05 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Jacob Lopez has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.23x and 86°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 6 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs TEX TEX vs Nathan Eovaldi 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. Nathan Eovaldi's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 91°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 11 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez 2:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Germán Márquez's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.05x, and 90°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs COL COL vs Ryan Feltner 3:10 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Ryan Feltner has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 92°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 4 TB
Chase DeLauter
CD
CLE CLE vs PIT PIT vs Paul Skenes 1:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from DeLauter: .468 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Paul Skenes has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 76°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
326-1408 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs PHI PHI vs Alan Rangel temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs CWS CWS vs Sean Burke platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Jorge Polanco
JP
NYM NYM vs PHI PHI vs Alan Rangel pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez platoon
HR prob
24%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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