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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2475-1323 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
306-617 33%
2+ TB Record
383-540 41%
Graded
923 picks W1
← PREV 2026-07-24 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto LOCK
NYM NYM vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Soto's .262 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Roki Sasaki has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 14% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin 7:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Davis Martin's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Luis García Jr.
LJ
WSH WSH vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez 6:45 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 114 mph max exit velocity, Jr. has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Eduardo Rodriguez's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 81°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages LOCK
LAD LAD vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Sean Manaea has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 3 TB
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez 6:45 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Eduardo Rodriguez's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 81°F game-time temp.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs WSH WSH vs Carson Palmquist 6:45 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Carroll is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .343 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. Carson Palmquist's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 81°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-14 — CHC CHC vs ATL ATL
2B
2 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
326-1404 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Ketel Marte
KM
AZ AZ vs WSH WSH vs Carson Palmquist temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs HOU HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs STL STL vs Dustin May temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✓ HOME RUN!
Shohei Ohtani
SO
LAD LAD vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs STL STL vs Dustin May temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Max Muncy
MM
Max Muncy BOMB
LAD LAD vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs WSH WSH vs Carson Palmquist temp pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Kyle Stowers
KS
MIA MIA vs SD SD vs Germán Márquez platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Jorge Polanco
JP
NYM NYM vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Bryce Harper
BH
PHI PHI vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez temp pitcher_form
HR prob
25%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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