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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2475-1323 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
306-617 33%
2+ TB Record
383-540 41%
Graded
923 picks W1
← PREV 2026-07-27 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Brice Turang
BT
MIL MIL vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Turang's .273 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Tyler Mahle's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle 9:40 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Payton Tolle's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.
Luis García Jr.
LJ
WSH WSH vs TOR TOR vs Max Scherzer 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 114 mph max exit velocity, Jr. has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Max Scherzer has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 84°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 3 TB
Elly De La Cruz
EC
CIN CIN vs CLE CLE vs Slade Cecconi 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .243 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Cruz has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Slade Cecconi has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 88°F game-time temp.
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs TOR TOR vs Max Scherzer 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Max Scherzer has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 84°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller 6:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Carroll is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .343 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. Mitch Keller has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Jordan Walker
JW
STL STL vs CHC CHC vs David Peterson 7:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .267 ISO and a 117 mph max exit velo this season. David Peterson's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 99°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
James Wood
JW
James Wood LOCK
WSH WSH vs TOR TOR vs Max Scherzer 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .225 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Wood has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Max Scherzer has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 84°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs CLE CLE vs Slade Cecconi 7:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Slade Cecconi has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from 88°F game-time temp.
Chase DeLauter
CD
CLE CLE vs CIN CIN vs Chase Burns 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from DeLauter: .468 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Chase Burns's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 88°F game-time temp.
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-14 — CHC CHC vs ATL ATL
2B
2 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
326-1404 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs CLE CLE vs Slade Cecconi temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs CLE CLE vs Slade Cecconi temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
Jorge Polanco
JP
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Ketel Marte
KM
AZ AZ vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs TOR TOR vs Max Scherzer temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs AZ AZ vs Merrill Kelly temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Taylor Ward
TW
BAL BAL vs DET DET vs Keider Montero temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
BAL BAL vs DET DET vs Keider Montero temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle platoon
HR prob
24%
Tyler O'Neill
TO
BAL BAL vs DET DET vs Keider Montero
HR prob
21%
✓ HOME RUN!
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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