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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2475-1323 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
306-617 33%
2+ TB Record
383-540 41%
Graded
923 picks W1
← PREV 2026-07-31 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs BAL BAL vs Brandon Young 7:05 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Schwarber: .343 ISO and a 113 mph max exit velo this season. Brandon Young has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.07x, and 85°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brice Turang
BT
MIL MIL vs LAA LAA vs Ryan Johnson 9:38 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Turang's .273 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Ryan Johnson has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.05x.
✓ HR 4 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs TEX TEX vs Nathan Eovaldi 8:15 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Nathan Eovaldi's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Luis García Jr.
LJ
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder 7:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 114 mph max exit velocity, Jr. has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Bryce Elder's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 89°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder 7:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Bryce Elder's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 89°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 4 TB
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Carroll is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .343 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. Tanner Bibee's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 85°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
James Wood
JW
James Wood LOCK
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder 7:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .225 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Wood has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Bryce Elder's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 89°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Cole Young
CY
Cole Young LOCK
SEA SEA vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews 10:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Young: .278 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Zebby Matthews's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 4 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-14 — CHC CHC vs ATL ATL
2B
2 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
326-1404 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs BAL BAL vs Brandon Young temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Trent Grisham
TG
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga temp
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Jorge Polanco
JP
NYM NYM vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice BOMB
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Bryce Harper
BH
PHI PHI vs BAL BAL vs Brandon Young temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Jahmai Jones
JJ
DET DET vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
Spencer Torkelson
ST
DET DET vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
JJ
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga
HR prob
27%
Junior Caminero
JC
TB TB vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Austin Wells
AW
Austin Wells ELITE
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Cody Bellinger
CB
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga
HR prob
21%
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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