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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2475-1323 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
306-617 33%
2+ TB Record
383-540 41%
Graded
923 picks W1
← PREV 2026-08-02 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland 3:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 111 mph max exit velocity, Perez has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 18% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 99°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Cade Cavalli 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Cade Cavalli's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 86°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 5 TB
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs KC KC vs Seth Lugo 3:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .248 ISO and 109 mph max exit velocity, Moniak has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Seth Lugo has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 99°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker 2:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Kumar Rocker has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ XBH 7 TB
Elly De La Cruz
EC
CIN CIN vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller 1:40 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .243 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Cruz has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Mitch Keller's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Cade Cavalli 1:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. Cade Cavalli's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 86°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-14 — CHC CHC vs ATL ATL
2B
2 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
326-1404 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Kyle Stowers
KS
MIA MIA vs NYM NYM vs Robert Stock temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz BOMB
ATH vs DET DET vs Keider Montero temp platoon
HR prob
30%
George Springer
GS
TOR TOR vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs SD SD vs Michael King temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Trent Grisham
TG
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs MIA MIA vs Sandy Alcantara platoon
HR prob
27%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
JJ
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs KC KC vs Seth Lugo temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kyle Manzardo
KM
CLE CLE vs AZ AZ vs Merrill Kelly temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Davis Schneider
DS
TOR TOR vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland temp pitcher_form
HR prob
25%
✗ No HR
Jorge Polanco
JP
NYM NYM vs MIA MIA vs Sandy Alcantara temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
José Ramírez
JR
CLE CLE vs AZ AZ vs Merrill Kelly temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Willy Adames
WA
SF SF vs SD SD vs Michael King temp
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Cody Bellinger
CB
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea platoon
HR prob
21%
Austin Wells
AW
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice BOMB
NYY NYY vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller
HR prob
27%
Sal Stewart
SS
Sal Stewart ELITE
CIN CIN vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs KC KC vs Seth Lugo
HR prob
24%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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