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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 22-6 (78.6%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 8-4 (66.7%) · S 1-1 (50.0%) · A 28-12 (70.0%) · B 232-117 (66.5%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
5-2 71%
2+ TB Record
5-2 71%
Graded
7 picks W2
← PREV 2026-04-22 NEXT →
Last scored 05:49 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell 6:45 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Zack Littell has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 4 TB
Ramón Laureano
RL
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 8:40 PM ET park temp
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Laureano's slugging 0.484 on the year with .226 isolated power — the extra-base hits are real. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 80°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Tanner Bibee 1:10 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Tanner Bibee has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 6 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell 6:45 PM ET platoon
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Zack Littell has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ HR 5 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs BAL BAL vs Chris Bassitt 2:10 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Faces Chris Bassitt on the mound today.
✓ HR 5 TB
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs LAA LAA vs José Soriano 3:07 PM ET
XBH Prob
46%
Awaiting lines
Varsho is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .310 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Faces José Soriano on the mound today.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Zach Neto
ZN
Zach Neto LOCK
LAA LAA vs TOR TOR vs Eric Lauer 3:07 PM ET
XBH Prob
45%
Awaiting lines
Neto is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .282 ISO with 107 mph max exit velo. Faces Eric Lauer on the mound today.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-04-22 — HOU HOU vs CLE CLE
HR
6 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-04-22 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
HR
5 TB
✓
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-04-22 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
HR
4 TB
✗
Ramón Laureano
Ramón Laureano
2026-04-22 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-04-22 — KC KC vs BAL BAL
HR
5 TB
✗
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-04-22 — TOR TOR vs LAA LAA
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-04-22 — LAA LAA vs TOR TOR
2B
2 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
42-161 (21%)
ELITE
13-47 (22%)
Ramón Laureano
RL
SD SD vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs ATL ATL vs Didier Fuentes pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RJ
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Zack Littell pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs AZ AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Taylor Ward
TW
Taylor Ward ELITE
BAL BAL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
Pete Alonso ELITE
BAL BAL vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs ATH vs Aaron Civale
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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