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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 22-6 (78.6%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 8-4 (66.7%) · S 1-1 (50.0%) · A 28-12 (70.0%) · B 232-117 (66.5%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
5-2 71%
2+ TB Record
5-2 71%
Graded
7 picks W2
← PREV 2026-04-23 NEXT →
Last scored 10:37 AM ET
Aaron Judge
AJ
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle 6:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Judge: .278 ISO and a 116 mph max exit velo this season. Payton Tolle has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Cade Cavalli 1:05 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Cade Cavalli's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
Ian Happ
IH
Ian Happ LOCK
CHC CHC vs PHI PHI vs Cristopher Sánchez 2:20 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Happ is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .352 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Cristopher Sánchez has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs WSH WSH vs Cade Cavalli 1:05 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Cade Cavalli's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-04-22 — HOU HOU vs CLE CLE
HR
6 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-04-22 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
HR
5 TB
✓
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-04-22 — ATL ATL vs WSH WSH
HR
4 TB
✗
Ramón Laureano
Ramón Laureano
2026-04-22 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-04-22 — KC KC vs BAL BAL
HR
5 TB
✗
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-04-22 — TOR TOR vs LAA LAA
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-04-22 — LAA LAA vs TOR TOR
2B
2 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
42-161 (21%)
ELITE
13-47 (22%)
Giancarlo Stanton
GS
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Aaron Judge
AJ
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs SD SD vs Matt Waldron pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Trent Grisham
TG
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
JJ
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs SD SD vs Matt Waldron pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
Cody Bellinger
CB
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle pitcher_form
HR prob
22%
Austin Wells
AW
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle pitcher_form
HR prob
22%
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice BOMB
NYY NYY vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle pitcher_form
HR prob
22%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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