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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 165-75 (68.8%) · B 1714-906 (65.4%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
213-400 35%
2+ TB Record
268-345 44%
Graded
613 picks W1
← PREV 2026-05-29 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Aaron Judge
AJ
NYY NYY vs ATH vs Luis Severino 9:40 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Judge: .278 ISO and a 116 mph max exit velo this season. Luis Severino has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs CIN CIN vs Chris Paddack 6:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Chris Paddack's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs MIN MIN vs Taj Bradley 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Taj Bradley's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 76°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Elly De La Cruz
EC
CIN CIN vs ATL ATL vs Grant Holmes 6:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .243 ISO and 116 mph max exit velocity, Cruz has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Grant Holmes's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs CIN CIN vs Chris Paddack 6:40 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Chris Paddack's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Jordan Walker
JW
STL STL vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga 7:15 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .267 ISO and a 116 mph max exit velo this season. Shota Imanaga has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 81°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-07-24 — HOU HOU vs CWS CWS
No XBH
1 TB
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✗
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
2026-07-24 — HOU HOU vs CWS CWS
No XBH
3 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-07-24 — CWS CWS vs HOU HOU
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✓
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-07-24 — HOU HOU vs CWS CWS
2B
2 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
247-994 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RJ
ATL ATL vs CIN CIN vs Chris Paddack temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✓ HOME RUN!
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs CLE CLE vs Slade Cecconi temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs COL COL vs Michael Lorenzen pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Riley Greene
RG
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs SD SD vs Lucas Giolito temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Joey Wiemer
JW
Joey Wiemer ELITE
WSH WSH vs SD SD vs Lucas Giolito
HR prob
24%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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