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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-73 (63.5%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-8 (55.6%) · A 222-104 (68.1%) · B 2540-1346 (65.4%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
311-633 33%
2+ TB Record
389-555 41%
Graded
944 picks L4
← PREV 2026-05-31 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Aaron Judge
AJ
NYY NYY vs ATH vs Jacob Lopez 4:05 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Judge: .278 ISO and a 116 mph max exit velo this season. Jacob Lopez has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.23x, and 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto LOCK
NYM NYM vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk 1:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Soto's .262 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Janson Junk has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 75°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 5 TB
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning 1:35 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Griffin Canning has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ XBH 3 TB
Jordan Walker
JW
STL STL vs CHC CHC vs Jordan Wicks 7:20 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .267 ISO and a 116 mph max exit velo this season. Jordan Wicks has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-20 — SEA SEA vs COL COL
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Kyle Stowers
Kyle Stowers
2026-09-20 — MIA MIA vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-20 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-20 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-20 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-20 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
331-1431 (19%)
ELITE
57-256 (18%)
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs COL COL vs Tanner Gordon temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✓ HOME RUN!
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz BOMB
ATH vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs DET DET vs Keider Montero pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp
HR prob
27%
Kerry Carpenter
KC
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Sean Burke pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Riley Greene
RG
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Sean Burke pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore temp pitcher_form
HR prob
25%
✗ No HR
Ketel Marte
KM
AZ AZ vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs SD SD vs Griffin Canning pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✓ HOME RUN!
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs TEX TEX vs Jack Leiter pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs ATL ATL vs Spencer Strider platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs ATL ATL vs Spencer Strider
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Sal Stewart
SS
Sal Stewart ELITE
CIN CIN vs ATL ATL vs Spencer Strider
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Rob Refsnyder
RR
SEA SEA vs AZ AZ vs Merrill Kelly
HR prob
21%
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs AZ AZ vs Merrill Kelly
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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