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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 220-104 (67.9%) · B 2515-1336 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
310-626 33%
2+ TB Record
388-548 41%
Graded
936 picks L2
← PREV 2026-06-14 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Christian Walker
CW
HOU HOU vs KC KC vs Stephen Kolek 2:10 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .325 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Stephen Kolek has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.05x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs NYM NYM vs Freddy Peralta 1:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Freddy Peralta has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs KC KC vs Stephen Kolek 2:10 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Stephen Kolek has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.05x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs TEX TEX vs Nathan Eovaldi 7:20 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 88°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen 1:40 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Zac Gallen has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from 79°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 3:05 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 101°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
330-1421 (19%)
ELITE
57-253 (18%)
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz BOMB
ATH vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN! 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani
SO
LAD LAD vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren platoon
HR prob
27%
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Taylor Ward
TW
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Max Muncy
MM
Max Muncy BOMB
LAD LAD vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Willy Adames
WA
SF SF vs CHC CHC vs Ryan Rolison platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs SEA SEA vs Emerson Hancock temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs HOU HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs HOU HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
George Springer
GS
TOR TOR vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Rob Refsnyder
RR
SEA SEA vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas
HR prob
24%
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs CHC CHC vs Ryan Rolison
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Davis Schneider
DS
TOR TOR vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Tyler O'Neill
TO
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler
HR prob
21%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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