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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 165-75 (68.8%) · B 1714-906 (65.4%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
213-400 35%
2+ TB Record
268-345 44%
Graded
613 picks W1
← PREV 2026-06-14 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Christian Walker
CW
HOU HOU vs KC KC vs Stephen Kolek 2:10 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .325 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Stephen Kolek has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.05x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs NYM NYM vs Freddy Peralta 1:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Freddy Peralta has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs KC KC vs Stephen Kolek 2:10 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Stephen Kolek has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.05x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs TEX TEX vs Nathan Eovaldi 7:20 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 88°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen 1:40 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Zac Gallen has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from 79°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 3:05 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 101°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-07-24 — HOU HOU vs CWS CWS
No XBH
1 TB
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✗
Jose Altuve
Jose Altuve
2026-07-24 — HOU HOU vs CWS CWS
No XBH
3 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-07-24 — CWS CWS vs HOU HOU
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✓
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-07-24 — HOU HOU vs CWS CWS
2B
2 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
247-994 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz BOMB
ATH vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN! 2 HR
Shohei Ohtani
SO
LAD LAD vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren platoon
HR prob
27%
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Taylor Ward
TW
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Max Muncy
MM
Max Muncy BOMB
LAD LAD vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Willy Adames
WA
SF SF vs CHC CHC vs Ryan Rolison platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs SEA SEA vs Emerson Hancock temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs HOU HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs HOU HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
George Springer
GS
TOR TOR vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Rob Refsnyder
RR
SEA SEA vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas
HR prob
24%
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs CHC CHC vs Ryan Rolison
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Davis Schneider
DS
TOR TOR vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Tyler O'Neill
TO
BAL BAL vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler
HR prob
21%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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