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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
211-398 35%
2+ TB Record
265-344 44%
Graded
609 picks L1
← PREV 2026-06-15 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs MIA MIA vs Ryan Gusto 6:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Schwarber: .343 ISO and a 113 mph max exit velo this season. Ryan Gusto has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs DET DET vs Troy Melton 8:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Troy Melton has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ XBH 3 TB
Luis García Jr.
LJ
WSH WSH vs KC KC vs Mitch Spence 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
With a .235 ISO and 111 mph max exit velocity, Jr. has the raw power to damage any pitcher. Mitch Spence has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 16% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs KC KC vs Mitch Spence 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Mitch Spence has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 16% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB
✗
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-07-21 — KC KC vs SF SF
HR
4 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-07-21 — SEA SEA vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
246-989 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs MIA MIA vs Ryan Gusto temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs COL COL vs Michael Lorenzen pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs KC KC vs Mitch Spence temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Hunter Goodman
HG
COL COL vs CHC CHC vs Shota Imanaga pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Bryce Harper
BH
PHI PHI vs MIA MIA vs Ryan Gusto temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs NYM NYM vs Tobias Myers pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs COL COL vs Michael Lorenzen pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✓ HOME RUN!
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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