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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 220-104 (67.9%) · B 2515-1336 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
310-626 33%
2+ TB Record
388-548 41%
Graded
936 picks L2
← PREV 2026-06-16 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs SF SF vs Adrian Houser 7:15 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Adrian Houser has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto LOCK
NYM NYM vs CIN CIN vs Brady Singer 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Soto's .262 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Brady Singer has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 14% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 78°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Shea Langeliers
SL
ATH vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller 9:40 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Mitch Keller's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs SF SF vs Adrian Houser 7:15 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Adrian Houser has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
Jordan Walker
JW
STL STL vs SD SD vs Michael King 7:45 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .267 ISO and a 117 mph max exit velo this season. Michael King has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from 82°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs NYM NYM vs Kodai Senga 7:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Kodai Senga's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from 78°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 5 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller 9:40 PM ET platoon park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Mitch Keller's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
330-1421 (19%)
ELITE
57-253 (18%)
Trent Grisham
TG
NYY NYY vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin temp platoon
HR prob
30%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
JJ
NYY NYY vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz BOMB
ATH vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
George Springer
GS
TOR TOR vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Davis Schneider
DS
TOR TOR vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice BOMB
NYY NYY vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Corey Seager
CS
TEX TEX vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs CLE CLE vs Slade Cecconi platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker platoon
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Cody Bellinger
CB
NYY NYY vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Austin Wells
AW
NYY NYY vs CWS CWS vs Davis Martin temp platoon
HR prob
24%
Byron Buxton
BB
Byron Buxton ELITE
MIN MIN vs TEX TEX vs Kumar Rocker
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs BOS BOS vs Payton Tolle
HR prob
27%
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs CLE CLE vs Slade Cecconi
HR prob
24%
Rob Refsnyder
RR
SEA SEA vs BAL BAL vs Brandon Young
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs BAL BAL vs Brandon Young
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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