LOCK LABS — Power Plays

BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 220-104 (67.9%) · B 2515-1336 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record

310-626 33%

2+ TB Record

388-548 41%

Graded

936 picks L2

← PREV 2026-06-17 NEXT →

Last scored 04:00 PM ET

Shea Langeliers LOCK

ATH vs PIT

PIT vs Braxton Ashcraft 9:40 PM ET park confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Elite power numbers from Langeliers: .416 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Braxton Ashcraft's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.23x.

✗ No XBH 0 TB

Wilyer Abreu LOCK

BOS vs TOR

TOR vs Max Scherzer 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Max Scherzer has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.

✓ XBH 3 TB

Nick Kurtz LOCK

ATH vs PIT

PIT vs Braxton Ashcraft 9:40 PM ET platoon park confirmed

XBH Prob

48%

Awaiting lines

Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Braxton Ashcraft's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and park factor 1.23x.

✗ No XBH 1 TB

Recent Results (last 20 graded)

✗

Ian Happ

2026-09-19 — CHC

CHC vs

CIN

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Sal Stewart

2026-09-19 — CIN

CIN vs

CHC

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Drake Baldwin

2026-09-19 — ATL

ATL vs

HOU

4 TB

✗

Yordan Alvarez

2026-09-19 — HOU

HOU vs

ATL

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Carter Jensen

2026-09-19 —

KC vs

PIT

4 TB

✗

Matt Olson

2026-09-19 — ATL

ATL vs

HOU

No XBH

2 TB

✗

Zach Neto

2026-09-19 — LAA

LAA vs

MIN

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Munetaka Murakami

2026-09-19 — CWS

CWS vs

DET

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Brandon Lowe

2026-09-18 — PIT

PIT vs

4 TB

✗

Chase DeLauter

2026-09-18 — CLE

CLE vs ATH

No XBH

1 TB

✓

Oneil Cruz

2026-09-18 — PIT

PIT vs

4 TB

✗

Ryan O'Hearn

2026-09-18 — PIT

PIT vs

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Sal Stewart

2026-09-17 — CIN

CIN vs

LAD

5 TB

✓

Brandon Lowe

2026-09-17 — PIT

PIT vs

MIL

2 TB

✗

Juan Soto

2026-09-17 — NYM

NYM vs

PHI

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Jared Young

2026-09-17 — NYM

NYM vs

PHI

No XBH

0 TB

✗

Oneil Cruz

2026-09-17 — PIT

PIT vs

MIL

No XBH

1 TB

✗

Zach Neto

2026-09-17 — LAA

LAA vs

MIN

No XBH

0 TB

✓

Yordan Alvarez

2026-09-17 — HOU

HOU vs

5 TB

✗

Kyle Schwarber

2026-09-17 — PHI

PHI vs

NYM

No XBH

0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB

330-1421 (19%)

ELITE

57-253 (18%)

Kyle Schwarber BOMB

PHI vs MIA

MIA vs Sandy Alcantara temp platoon

HR prob

30%

✗ No HR

Wilyer Abreu BOMB

BOS vs TOR

TOR vs Max Scherzer temp pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

29%

✗ No HR

Ketel Marte BOMB

AZ vs

LAA vs Sam Aldegheri platoon

HR prob

27%

✗ No HR

Jo Adell BOMB

LAA vs

AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez platoon

HR prob

27%

✗ No HR

Brandon Lowe BOMB

PIT vs ATH vs Aaron Civale pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✗ No HR

Carter Jensen BOMB

KC vs

WSH vs Zack Littell temp pitcher_form platoon

HR prob

26%

✓ HOME RUN!

Salvador Perez BOMB

KC vs

WSH vs Zack Littell temp pitcher_form

HR prob

25%

✗ No HR

Mike Trout BOMB

LAA vs

AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez platoon

HR prob

24%

✗ No HR

Bryce Harper BOMB

PHI vs MIA

MIA vs Sandy Alcantara temp platoon

HR prob

24%

✗ No HR

Zach Neto BOMB

LAA vs

AZ vs Eduardo Rodriguez platoon

HR prob

21%

✓ HOME RUN!

Corbin Carroll ELITE

AZ vs

LAA vs Sam Aldegheri

HR prob

24%

✓ HOME RUN!

How picks are filtered

2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.

HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.

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