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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 220-104 (67.9%) · B 2515-1336 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
310-626 33%
2+ TB Record
388-548 41%
Graded
936 picks L2
← PREV 2026-06-19 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Ryan O'Hearn
RO
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland 8:40 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from O'Hearn: .333 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 86°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland 8:40 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 86°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Oneil Cruz
OC
Oneil Cruz LOCK
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland 8:40 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Cruz: .343 ISO and a 119 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 86°F game-time temp.
Jordan Walker
JW
STL STL vs KC KC vs Seth Lugo 8:15 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .267 ISO and a 117 mph max exit velo this season. Seth Lugo has allowed a 11% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.05x and 82°F game-time temp.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy 8:15 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Michael McGreevy's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.05x, and 82°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Cam Schlittler 7:05 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Cam Schlittler has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.06x and 81°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
330-1421 (19%)
ELITE
57-253 (18%)
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland temp pitcher_form
HR prob
31%
✗ No HR
Jo Adell
JA
Jo Adell BOMB
LAA LAA vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Kerry Carpenter
KC
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Riley Greene
RG
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Spencer Torkelson
ST
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Mike Trout
MT
Mike Trout BOMB
LAA LAA vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
Corey Seager
CS
TEX TEX vs SD SD vs Randy Vásquez pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
Gary Sánchez
GS
MIL MIL vs ATL ATL vs Martín Pérez platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy temp
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Zach Neto
ZN
Zach Neto BOMB
LAA LAA vs ATH vs Jeffrey Springs pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✓ HOME RUN!
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy platoon
HR prob
21%
George Springer
GS
TOR TOR vs CHC CHC vs Ben Brown
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Taylor Ward
TW
Taylor Ward ELITE
BAL BAL vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Pete Alonso
PA
Pete Alonso ELITE
BAL BAL vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Jahmai Jones
JJ
Jahmai Jones ELITE
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Davis Schneider
DS
TOR TOR vs CHC CHC vs Ben Brown
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Tyler O'Neill
TO
BAL BAL vs LAD LAD vs Roki Sasaki
HR prob
21%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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