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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 220-104 (67.9%) · B 2515-1336 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
310-626 33%
2+ TB Record
388-548 41%
Graded
936 picks L2
← PREV 2026-06-20 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Christian Walker
CW
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Joey Cantillo 7:15 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .325 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Joey Cantillo's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs MIL MIL vs Kyle Harrison 4:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Harrison has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Ryan O'Hearn
RO
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 9:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from O'Hearn: .333 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 9:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 87°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 3 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs MIL MIL vs Kyle Harrison 4:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Kyle Harrison has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren 1:35 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Will Warren's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.06x and 79°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 4 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
330-1421 (19%)
ELITE
57-253 (18%)
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs SEA SEA vs Emerson Hancock pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Kyle Manzardo
KM
CLE CLE vs HOU HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Corey Seager
CS
TEX TEX vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
24%
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren platoon
HR prob
21%
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
27%
Willy Adames
WA
Willy Adames ELITE
SF SF vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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