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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 89-52 (63.1%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 23-32 (41.8%) · S 8-5 (61.5%) · A 164-73 (69.2%) · B 1705-896 (65.6%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
211-398 35%
2+ TB Record
265-344 44%
Graded
609 picks L1
← PREV 2026-06-20 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Christian Walker
CW
HOU HOU vs CLE CLE vs Joey Cantillo 7:15 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Walker: .325 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Joey Cantillo's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs MIL MIL vs Kyle Harrison 4:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Kyle Harrison has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Ryan O'Hearn
RO
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 9:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from O'Hearn: .333 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano 9:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.19x, and 87°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 3 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs MIL MIL vs Kyle Harrison 4:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Kyle Harrison has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren 1:35 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Will Warren's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.06x and 79°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 4 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-24 — AZ AZ vs WSH WSH
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Luis García Jr.
Luis García Jr.
2026-07-24 — WSH WSH vs AZ AZ
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
3B
3 TB
✓
Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman
2026-07-24 — LAD LAD vs NYM NYM
2B
4 TB
✓
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-07-24 — PHI PHI vs NYY NYY
2B
2 TB
✓
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-07-24 — NYM NYM vs LAD LAD
2B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-23 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-23 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Corbin Carroll
Corbin Carroll
2026-07-23 — AZ AZ vs STL STL
3B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-07-22 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Andy Pages
Andy Pages
2026-07-22 — LAD LAD vs PHI PHI
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-07-22 — LAA LAA vs STL STL
2B
2 TB
✓
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-07-22 — SD SD vs ATL ATL
HR
5 TB
✗
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-07-21 — ATL ATL vs SD SD
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-07-21 — KC KC vs SF SF
HR
4 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-07-21 — SEA SEA vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
246-989 (20%)
ELITE
40-192 (17%)
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs COL COL vs Tomoyuki Sugano temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✗ No HR
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren temp
HR prob
30%
✗ No HR
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs CHC CHC vs Colin Rea pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs SEA SEA vs Emerson Hancock pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Kyle Manzardo
KM
CLE CLE vs HOU HOU vs Spencer Arrighetti pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Corey Seager
CS
TEX TEX vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
24%
Rafael Devers
RD
SF SF vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs AZ AZ vs Zac Gallen pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
Will Benson
WB
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren platoon
HR prob
21%
Eugenio Suárez
ES
CIN CIN vs NYY NYY vs Will Warren
HR prob
27%
Willy Adames
WA
Willy Adames ELITE
SF SF vs MIA MIA vs Max Meyer
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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