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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2484-1325 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
308-620 33%
2+ TB Record
385-543 41%
Graded
928 picks L1
← PREV 2026-06-24 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland 3:10 PM ET park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abreu's .428 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 17% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: park factor 1.19x and 76°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
CJ Abrams
CA
CJ Abrams LOCK
WSH WSH vs PHI PHI vs Aaron Nola 6:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Abrams is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .291 ISO with 111 mph max exit velo. Aaron Nola's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 81°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore 7:45 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Carroll is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .343 ISO with 112 mph max exit velo. Matthew Liberatore has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from 85°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Nick Kurtz
NK
Nick Kurtz LOCK
ATH vs SF SF vs Tyler Mahle 9:45 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Kurtz's .329 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Tyler Mahle has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
327-1408 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Ketel Marte
KM
AZ AZ vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs HOU HOU vs Mike Burrows pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs COL COL vs Kyle Freeland temp pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Corbin Carroll
CC
AZ AZ vs STL STL vs Matthew Liberatore temp pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Bryce Harper
BH
PHI PHI vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs WSH WSH vs Miles Mikolas platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kyle Manzardo
KM
CLE CLE vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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