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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 216-103 (67.7%) · B 2476-1324 (65.2%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
306-618 33%
2+ TB Record
383-541 41%
Graded
924 picks W1
← PREV 2026-07-09 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs PIT PIT vs Mitch Keller 12:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Mitch Keller has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 82°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 4 TB
Ryan O'Hearn
RO
PIT PIT vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder 12:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from O'Hearn: .333 ISO and a 108 mph max exit velo this season. Bryce Elder's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 82°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Kyle Schwarber
KS
PHI PHI vs CIN CIN vs Brady Singer 7:10 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Schwarber: .343 ISO and a 113 mph max exit velo this season. Brady Singer's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder 12:35 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Lowe: .366 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Bryce Elder's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 82°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Brice Turang
BT
MIL MIL vs STL STL vs Andre Pallante 7:45 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Turang's .273 ISO puts him in the top tier of power hitters on today's slate. Andre Pallante's last 3 starts show a 9% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 91°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 5 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea 1:10 PM ET temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Sean Manaea has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 15% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from 83°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Chase DeLauter
CD
CLE CLE vs MIN MIN vs Bailey Ober 1:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from DeLauter: .468 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Bailey Ober has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 14% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 79°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 4 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Daulton Varsho
Daulton Varsho
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
326-1408 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Juan Soto
JS
Juan Soto BOMB
NYM NYM vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✓ HOME RUN!
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs ATL ATL vs Bryce Elder temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Kyle Manzardo
KM
CLE CLE vs MIN MIN vs Bailey Ober temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Kyle Stowers
KS
MIA MIA vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs NYM NYM vs Sean Manaea temp pitcher_form
HR prob
25%
✗ No HR
Jorge Polanco
JP
NYM NYM vs KC KC vs Michael Wacha temp platoon
HR prob
24%
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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