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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 126-71 (64.0%) · Streak: 2 · Parlay: 29-42 (40.8%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 214-100 (68.2%) · B 2466-1321 (65.1%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
302-613 33%
2+ TB Record
379-536 41%
Graded
915 picks L2
← PREV 2026-08-18 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews 7:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Zebby Matthews's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 81°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Andy Pages
AP
Andy Pages LOCK
LAD LAD vs COL COL vs Ryan Feltner 8:40 PM ET park confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Pages is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .323 ISO with 110 mph max exit velo. Ryan Feltner has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 12% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from park factor 1.19x.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews 7:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. Zebby Matthews's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 81°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 5 TB
Munetaka Murakami
MM
CWS CWS vs CHC CHC vs Kevin Gausman 8:05 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Murakami is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .387 ISO with 114 mph max exit velo. Kevin Gausman's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 77°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 4 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-16 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Cole Young
Cole Young
2026-09-16 — SEA SEA vs LAA LAA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-16 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Christian Walker
Christian Walker
2026-09-16 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-14 — CHC CHC vs ATL ATL
2B
2 TB
✗
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
2026-09-13 — ATH vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-13 — CWS CWS vs STL STL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-13 — CHC CHC vs PIT PIT
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones
2026-09-13 — BOS BOS vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-13 — COL COL vs DET DET
2B
2 TB
✗
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-12 — PIT PIT vs CHC CHC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-12 — PIT PIT vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-12 — PIT PIT vs CHC CHC
HR
4 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
325-1401 (19%)
ELITE
54-250 (18%)
Jo Adell
JA
Jo Adell BOMB
CLE CLE vs SF SF vs Carson Whisenhunt temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
32%
✓ HOME RUN!
José Ramírez
JR
CLE CLE vs SF SF vs Carson Whisenhunt temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✗ No HR
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RJ
ATL ATL vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews temp pitcher_form
HR prob
28%
✗ No HR
Brandon Lowe
BL
PIT PIT vs DET DET vs Keider Montero temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Wilyer Abreu
WA
BOS BOS vs AZ AZ vs Merrill Kelly pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Christian Yelich
CY
MIL MIL vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✓ HOME RUN!
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
LOCK LABS — Data In. Locks Out.
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