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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 126-71 (64.0%) · Streak: 2 · Parlay: 29-42 (40.8%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 214-99 (68.4%) · B 2453-1313 (65.1%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
302-609 33%
2+ TB Record
378-533 41%
Graded
911 picks L3
← PREV 2026-09-04 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs AZ AZ vs Merrill Kelly 8:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Merrill Kelly has allowed a 10% XBH rate over his last 3 starts — hitters are squaring him up for damage. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs TOR TOR vs Jameson Taillon 8:10 PM ET platoon park temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Jameson Taillon's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Everything lines up: platoon advantage, park factor 1.05x, and 96°F game-time temp.
✓ XBH 2 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-16 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker
2026-09-15 — STL STL vs SF SF
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-15 — LAA LAA vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jackson Merrill
Jackson Merrill
2026-09-14 — SD SD vs COL COL
No XBH
3 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-14 — NYM NYM vs BAL BAL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-14 — COL COL vs SD SD
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-14 — CHC CHC vs ATL ATL
2B
2 TB
✗
Max Muncy
Max Muncy
2026-09-13 — ATH vs SEA SEA
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-13 — CWS CWS vs STL STL
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-13 — CHC CHC vs PIT PIT
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jahmai Jones
Jahmai Jones
2026-09-13 — BOS BOS vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Mickey Moniak
Mickey Moniak
2026-09-13 — COL COL vs DET DET
2B
2 TB
✗
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-12 — PIT PIT vs CHC CHC
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-12 — PIT PIT vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-12 — PIT PIT vs CHC CHC
HR
4 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-12 — CWS CWS vs STL STL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-11 — ATL ATL vs PHI PHI
2B
3 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-11 — CLE CLE vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu
2026-09-11 — BOS BOS vs KC KC
2B
3 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
325-1395 (19%)
ELITE
53-249 (18%)
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs MIN MIN vs Zebby Matthews temp platoon
HR prob
30%
✓ HOME RUN!
Byron Buxton
BB
MIN MIN vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp
HR prob
30%
Trent Grisham
TG
NYY NYY vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Kody Clemens
KC
MIN MIN vs CWS CWS vs Erick Fedde temp platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
JJ
NYY NYY vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Michael Busch
MB
CHC CHC vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk platoon
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Vinnie Pasquantino
VP
KC KC vs TOR TOR vs Jameson Taillon temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs TOR TOR vs Jameson Taillon temp pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Salvador Perez
SP
KC KC vs TOR TOR vs Jameson Taillon temp pitcher_form
HR prob
25%
✗ No HR
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice BOMB
NYY NYY vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
Cody Bellinger
CB
NYY NYY vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Austin Wells
AW
NYY NYY vs SD SD vs Walker Buehler platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
Pete Crow-Armstrong
PC
CHC CHC vs MIA MIA vs Janson Junk platoon
HR prob
21%
✗ No HR
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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