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DATA IN. LOCKS OUT.
Welcome to Lock Labs! Scores above 80 = strong pick · Tier S+ = elite · Tap any pick to see the breakdown.
BTS Single 127-72 (63.8%) · Streak: 0 · Parlay: 29-43 (40.3%) · S 10-7 (58.8%) · A 220-104 (67.9%) · B 2515-1336 (65.3%)

Power Plays

BETA

Highest conviction 2+ total base picks. LOCK tier only — pitcher form + boost required.

XBH Record
310-626 33%
2+ TB Record
388-548 41%
Graded
936 picks L2
← PREV 2026-09-19 NEXT →
Last scored 04:00 PM ET
Matt Olson
MO
Matt Olson LOCK
ATL ATL vs HOU HOU vs Hayden Wesneski 7:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Olson: .290 ISO and a 112 mph max exit velo this season. Hayden Wesneski has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ 2+ TB 2 TB
Yordan Alvarez
YA
HOU HOU vs ATL ATL vs Grant Holmes 7:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Alvarez: .500 ISO and a 118 mph max exit velo this season. Grant Holmes's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✗ No XBH 1 TB
Drake Baldwin
DB
ATL ATL vs HOU HOU vs Hayden Wesneski 7:10 PM ET platoon confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Baldwin is one of the most dangerous power bats in baseball right now — .325 ISO with 113 mph max exit velo. Hayden Wesneski has been getting crushed for extra-base hits — 13% XBH rate in his last 3 starts. Gets an extra edge from platoon advantage.
✓ XBH 4 TB
Carter Jensen
CJ
KC KC vs PIT PIT vs Bubba Chandler 6:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Jensen: .250 ISO and a 114 mph max exit velo this season. Bubba Chandler's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 76°F game-time temp.
✓ HR 4 TB
Sal Stewart
SS
CIN CIN vs CHC CHC vs Matthew Boyd 6:40 PM ET platoon temp confirmed
XBH Prob
48%
Awaiting lines
Elite power numbers from Stewart: .300 ISO and a 111 mph max exit velo this season. Matthew Boyd's last 3 starts show a 8% XBH rate — he's been hittable for power. Stacking boosts: platoon advantage and 87°F game-time temp.
✗ No XBH 0 TB
Recent Results (last 20 graded)
✗
Ian Happ
Ian Happ
2026-09-19 — CHC CHC vs CIN CIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-19 — CIN CIN vs CHC CHC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
2B
4 TB
✗
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-19 — HOU HOU vs ATL ATL
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen
2026-09-19 — KC KC vs PIT PIT
HR
4 TB
✗
Matt Olson
Matt Olson
2026-09-19 — ATL ATL vs HOU HOU
No XBH
2 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-19 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami
2026-09-19 — CWS CWS vs DET DET
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
HR
4 TB
✗
Chase DeLauter
Chase DeLauter
2026-09-18 — CLE CLE vs ATH
No XBH
1 TB
✓
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
2B
4 TB
✗
Ryan O'Hearn
Ryan O'Hearn
2026-09-18 — PIT PIT vs KC KC
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Sal Stewart
Sal Stewart
2026-09-17 — CIN CIN vs LAD LAD
HR
5 TB
✓
Brandon Lowe
Brandon Lowe
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
2B
2 TB
✗
Juan Soto
Juan Soto
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Jared Young
Jared Young
2026-09-17 — NYM NYM vs PHI PHI
No XBH
0 TB
✗
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz
2026-09-17 — PIT PIT vs MIL MIL
No XBH
1 TB
✗
Zach Neto
Zach Neto
2026-09-17 — LAA LAA vs MIN MIN
No XBH
0 TB
✓
Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez
2026-09-17 — HOU HOU vs KC KC
HR
5 TB
✗
Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber
2026-09-17 — PHI PHI vs NYM NYM
No XBH
0 TB

Home Run Picks

BETA

Separate model — HR rate × pitcher xSLG × max exit velo. BOMB = base + boost (temp, pitcher form, or platoon).

BOMB
330-1421 (19%)
ELITE
57-253 (18%)
Cal Raleigh
CR
SEA SEA vs COL COL vs Jose Quintana pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
✓ HOME RUN!
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
JJ
NYY NYY vs AZ AZ vs Brandon Pfaadt pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
29%
Daulton Varsho
DV
TOR TOR vs TEX TEX vs Cal Quantrill platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Colson Montgomery
CM
CWS CWS vs DET DET vs Jackson Jobe platoon
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Mickey Moniak
MM
COL COL vs SEA SEA vs Bryce Miller pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Austin Wells
AW
NYY NYY vs AZ AZ vs Brandon Pfaadt pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✓ HOME RUN!
Riley Greene
RG
DET DET vs CWS CWS vs Sean Burke pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
Ben Rice
BR
Ben Rice BOMB
NYY NYY vs AZ AZ vs Brandon Pfaadt pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
26%
✗ No HR
James Wood
JW
James Wood BOMB
WSH WSH vs STL STL vs Michael McGreevy temp platoon
HR prob
24%
✗ No HR
Cody Bellinger
CB
NYY NYY vs AZ AZ vs Brandon Pfaadt pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
Julio Rodríguez
JR
SEA SEA vs COL COL vs Jose Quintana pitcher_form platoon
HR prob
23%
✗ No HR
George Springer
GS
TOR TOR vs TEX TEX vs Cal Quantrill
HR prob
27%
✗ No HR
Davis Schneider
DS
TOR TOR vs TEX TEX vs Cal Quantrill
HR prob
27%
✓ HOME RUN!
Ronald Acuña Jr.
RJ
ATL ATL vs HOU HOU vs Hayden Wesneski
HR prob
24%
✓ HOME RUN!
How picks are filtered
2+ TB: ISO×pxSLG ≥ .100 + pitcher L3 XBH rate ≥ .08 + boost flag. ~48% XBH hit rate vs ~29% implied.
HR: HR rate ≥ .049 + pitcher xSLG ≥ .420 + max EV ≥ 101. BOMB = base + boost. ~27% HR vs ~20-25% implied.
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